Toil and Trouble

Chan has written my post on the housing bubble so I don’t have to.

Seriously.  The other day I saw this housing bubble post at Coyote Blog, which led me to this much-linked post by Will at Vodkapundit.  I also checked his other links.

Plunging in, I searched Technorati and read a bunch of recent posts on the topic.  Trouble was, by the time I was done with them and the things that took me away from them, hours later, I had lost my enthusiasm for writing a linky thinky speculation piece.  Figured I’d go back to it.

Last night I played around with numbers.  I figured out that I can afford a $114,000 mortgage, based on traditional standards, adjusted for debt and the fact I pay extra taxes due to self-employment.  The payment sounded right and was lower than my rent.  In fact, it was more like what I still think of as maximally acceptable rent.  Using another online calculator, I let the thing determine size of mortgage based on income, again adjusted for the extra taxes, and various payments.  That said I can afford $88,000 and the payment would be less than half my rent.  No wonder the rent feels so high!  And it’s not.  It’s normal to low for the area and specs.

We pretty much have to hope for this to be a bubble, and for it to burst or deflate substantially without taking the whole economy with it.  If it doesn’t, we’re priced out, unless I move into a six figure income.

I have to wonder… does all the bubble buzz, which was a whisper when I first started writing about the topic, actually help make a pop inevitable?  Or does it help bring it down gently?  Or does it have no impact at all?

1. I refuse to read anymore bubble articles. It’s freaking me out

   Posted by Ith  on  06/02  at  11:20 AM

2. they talk bubble every other week on the fox
   saturday financial shows.  One real estate guy summed it up.  They aren’t building anymore coast.  You’re near the coast.
   Move to Provo, Indianapolis, Columbus but a new home.  Go to homebuilder.com and check the prices, you won’t believe it.
   Also for areas such as yours and the SF bay area there are 100% mortgages, and interest only mortgages.

   Posted by  on  06/03  at  11:32 AM

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